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Monday 27 April 2015

WHATSAPP APPLICATION

WhatsApp is an instant messaging app for smartphones that operates under a subscription business model. The proprietary, cross-platform app uses the Internet to send text messages, images, video, user location and audio media messages.

In January 2015, WhatsApp was the most globally popular messaging app with more than 700 million active users.In April 2015, WhatsApp reached 800 million active users.

WhatsApp Inc., based in Mountain View, California, was acquired by Facebook on February 19, 2014, for approx. US$22 billion.

Contents  

1 History
2 Platform support
3 Web client
4 Technical
5 Security
6 Privacy
7 Criticism of business model
8 Acquisition by Facebook
9 Competition and shares

History

WhatsApp Inc., was founded in 2009 by Brian Acton and Jan Koum, both former employees of Yahoo!. After Koum and Acton left Yahoo! in September 2007, the duo travelled to South America as a break from work.At one point they applied for a job at Facebook but failed.For the rest of the following years Koum relied on his $400,000 savings from Yahoo. In January 2009, after purchasing an iPhone and realizing that the seven-month-old App Store was about to spawn a whole new industry of apps, he started visiting his friend, Alex Fishman in West San Jose where the three would discuss "...having statuses next to individual names of the people," but this was not possible without an iPhone developer, so Fishman introduced Koum to Igor Solomennikov, a developer in Russia that he had found on RentACoder.com. Koum almost immediately chose the name "WhatsApp" because it sounded like "what’s up," and a week later on his birthday, on February 24, 2009, he incorporated WhatsApp Inc. in California. However, early WhatsApp kept crashing or getting stuck and at a particular point. Koum felt like giving up and looking for a new job, upon which Acton encouraged him to wait for a "few more months."

In June 2009, Apple launched push notifications, letting developers ping users when they were not using an app. Koum updated WhatsApp so that each time the user changed their statuses, it would ping everyone in the user's network.WhatsApp 2.0 was released with a messaging component and the active users suddenly swelled to 250,000. Koum visited Acton, who was still unemployed while managing another unsuccessful startup and decided to join the company.In October Acton persuaded five ex-Yahoo friends to invest $250,000 in seed funding, and as a result was granted co-founder status and a stake. He officially joined on November 1.After months at beta stage, the application eventually launched in November 2009 exclusively on the App Store for the iPhone. Koum then hired an old friend who lived in Los Angeles, Chris Peiffer, to make the BlackBerry version, which arrived two months later.

WhatsApp was switched from a free to paid service to avoid growing too fast, mainly because the primary cost was sending verification texts to users. In December 2009 WhatsApp for the iPhone was updated to send photos. By early 2011, WhatsApp was in the top 20 of all apps in Apple's U.S. App Store.

The founders agreed to take $7 million from Sequoia Capital on top of their $250,000 seed funding, after months of negotiation with Sequoia partner Jim Goetz.

By February 2013, WhatsApp's user base had swelled to about 200 million active users and its staff to 50. Sequoia invested another $50 million, valuing WhatsApp at $1.5 billion.

In a December 2013 blog post, WhatsApp claimed that 400 million active users use the service each month.As of 22 April 2014, WhatsApp had over 500 million monthly active users, 700 million photos and 100 million videos are shared each day, and the messaging system handles more than 10 billion messages each day.On August 24, 2014, Koum announced on his Twitter account that Whatsapp had over 600 million active users worldwide. WhatsApp added about 25 million new users every month or 833,000 active users per day.With 65 million active users, about 10% of the total worldwide users, India is the largest single country in terms of number of users.

By early January 2015, WhatsApp reached a new milestone of 700 million monthly active users with over 30 billion messages being sent every day.In April 2015, Forbes predicted that between 2012-2018, the telecommunications industry will lose a combine total of $386 billion because of OTT services like WhatsApp and Skype.In the same month, WhatsApp had over 800 million active users.

Platform support

After months at beta stage, the application eventually launched in November 2009 exclusively on the App Store for the iPhone. In January 2010, support for BlackBerry smartphones was added, and subsequently for Symbian OS in May 2010 and for Android OS in August 2010. In August 2011 a beta for Nokia Series 40 was added, making it the first non-smartphone OS with official WhatsApp support. A month later support for Windows Phone was added, followed by the BlackBerry 10 in March 2013.

The oldest device currently capable of running WhatsApp is the Symbian-based Nokia N95 released in March 2007.

In August 2014, WhatsApp released an update to its Android app, adding support for Android Wear smartwatches.

On January 21, 2015, WhatsApp launched a web client which can be used from the browser to send messages.

Web client


Whatsapp web running on Google chrome
WhatsApp was made available on web browsers for the first time in late January 2015 through an announcement made by Koum on his Facebook page: "Our web client is simply an extension of your phone: the web browser mirrors conversations and messages from your mobile device—this means all of your messages still live on your phone". The WhatsApp user's handset must still be connected to the Internet for the browser application to function. As of January 21, 2015, the desktop version was only available to Android, Blackberry and Windows Phone users.

Technical

WhatsApp uses a customized version of the open standard Extensible Messaging and Presence Protocol (XMPP).Upon installation, it creates a user account using one's phone number as the username (Jabber ID: [phone number]@s.whatsapp.net).

WhatsApp software automatically compares all the phone numbers from the device's address book with its central database of WhatsApp users to automatically add contacts to the user's WhatsApp contact list. Previously the Android and S40 versions used an MD5-hashed, reversed-version of the phone's IMEI as password,while the iOS version used the phone's Wi-Fi MAC address instead of IMEI. A 2012 update now generates a random password on the server side.

WhatsApp is supported on most Android, BlackBerry, iPhone, and Nokia smartphones. All Android phones running the Android 2.1 and above, all BlackBerry devices running OS 4.7 and later, including BlackBerry 10, and all iPhones running iOS 4.3 and later. However, some Dual SIM devices may not be compatible with WhatsApp, though there are some workarounds for this.

Multimedia messages are sent by uploading the image, audio or video to be sent to an HTTP server and then sending a link to the content along with its Base64 encoded thumbnail (if applicable).

Security

In May 2011, a security hole was reported which left WhatsApp user accounts open for session hijacking and packet analysis.WhatsApp communications were not encrypted, and data was sent and received in plaintext, meaning messages could easily be read if packet traces were available.

In September 2011, WhatsApp released a new version of the Messenger application for iPhones, closing critical security holes that allowed forged messages to be sent and messages from any WhatsApp user to be read.

On January 6, 2012, an unknown hacker published a website that made it possible to change the status of an arbitrary WhatsApp user, as long as the phone number was known. To make it work, it only required a restart of the app. According to the hacker, it is only one of the many security problems in WhatsApp. On January 9, WhatsApp reported that it had resolved the problem, although the only measure actually taken was to block the website's IP address. As a reaction, a Windows tool was made available for download providing the same functionality. This problem has since been resolved in the form of an IP address check on currently logged-in sessions.

On January 13, 2012, WhatsApp was removed from the iOS App Store, and the reason was not disclosed; however, the app was added back to the App Store four days later. WhatsApp was removed from Windows Phone store because of some technical problems, The app was added back to the Store on May 30, 2014.

In May 2012, security researchers noticed that new updates of WhatsApp no longer sent messages as plaintext,but the cryptographic method implemented was subsequently described as "broken".As of August 15, 2012, the WhatsApp support staff claim messages are encrypted in the "latest version" of the WhatsApp software for iOS and Android (but not BlackBerry, Windows Phone, and Symbian), without specifying the implemented cryptographic method.

German Tech site The H demonstrated how to use WhatsAPI to hijack any WhatsApp account on September 14, 2012.Shortly after, a legal threat to WhatsAPI's developers was alleged, characterized by The H as "an apparent reaction" to security reports, and WhatsAPI's source code was taken down for some days.The WhatsAPI team has since returned to active development.

On November 4, 2014, WhatsApp scored 2 out of 7 points on the Electronic Frontier Foundation's secure messaging scorecard. It lost points because communications are not encrypted with a key the provider doesn't have access to, users can't verify contacts' identities, past messages are not secure if the encryption keys are stolen, the code is not open to independent review, and the security design is not properly documented.

On November 18, 2014, Open Whisper Systems announced a partnership with WhatsApp to provide end-to-end encryption by incorporating the protocol used in their TextSecure application into each WhatsApp client platform.Open Whisper Systems asserted that they have already incorporated the protocol into the latest WhatsApp client for Android and that support for other clients, group/media messages, and key verification would be coming soon.WhatsApp confirmed the partnership to reporters, but there was no announcement or documentation about the encryption feature on the official website, and further requests for comment were declined.


Privacy

A major privacy and security problem has been the subject of a joint Canadian-Dutch government investigation. The primary concern was that WhatsApp required users to upload their mobile phone's entire address book to WhatsApp servers so that WhatsApp could discover who, among the users' contacts, is available via WhatsApp. While this is a fast and convenient way to quickly find and connect the user with contacts who are also using WhatsApp, it means that their address book was then mirrored on the WhatsApp servers, including contact information for contacts who are not using WhatsApp. This information was stored in hashed, though not salted form and without "additional" identifying information such as a name, although the stored identifying information is sufficient to identify every contact.

On March 31, 2013 the Saudi Arabian Communications and Information Technology Commission (CITC) issued a statement regarding possible measures against WhatsApp, among other applications, unless the service providers took serious steps to comply with monitoring and privacy regulations.

A user does not need to send a friend request to send messages to another user.

In November, Whatsapp introduced a new feature known as Read Receipts which alerts senders when their messages are read by recipients. Within a week, Whatsapp introduced an update allowing users to disable this feature.

In February 2014, the public authority for data privacy of the German state of Schleswig-Holstein has advised against using WhatsApp, as the service lacks privacy protection such as end-to-end client side encryption technology.

In February 2015, a Dutch university student named Maikel Zweerink published an app that set out to prove that anyone can track a WhatsApp user's status and also keep an eye of their changing profile pictures, privacy settings or status messages regardless of their privacy settings.

Criticism of business model

In response to the Facebook acquisition, Slate columnist Matthew Yglesias questioned whether the company's business model was viable in the United States in the long term. It had prospered by exploiting a "loophole" in mobile phone carriers' pricing. "Mobile phone operators aren't really selling consumers some voice service, some data service, and some SMS service", he explained. "They are selling access to the network. The different pricing schemes they come up with are just different ways of trying to maximize the value they extract from consumers." As part of that, they sold SMS separately. That made it easy for WhatsApp to find a way to replicate SMS using data, and then sell that to mobile customers for $1 a year. "But if WhatsApp gets big enough, then carrier strategy is going to change", he predicted. "You stop selling separate SMS plans and just have a take-it-or-leave-it overall package. And then suddenly WhatsApp isn't doing anything." However, the WhatsApp service would still provide value, if domestic texts were free, as users can still send free international texts, and Whatsapp also allows users to send their locations, audio/video files, and contacts.

In many markets outside the United States, WhatsApp is much more viable due to the existence of daily SMS fees or per-SMS fees, which make texting much more costly.

Acquisition by Facebook

On February 19, 2014, months after a venture capital financing round at a $1.5 billion valuation,Facebook announced it was acquiring WhatsApp for US$19 billion, its largest acquisition to date.Facebook, which was advised by Allen & Co, paid $4 billion in cash, $12 billion in Facebook shares, and an additional $3 billion in restricted stock units granted to WhatsApp's founders (advised by Morgan Stanley), Koum and Acton.Employee stock was scheduled to vest over four years subsequent to closing.The transaction was the largest purchase of a company backed by venture capitalists to date.Days after the announcement, WhatsApp users experienced a loss of service, leading to anger across social media.

The acquisition caused a considerable number of users to move, or try out other message services as well. Telegram claimed to have seen 8 million additional downloads of its app.Line claimed to have seen 2 million new users for its service.

At a keynote presentation at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February 2014, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that Facebook's acquisition of WhatsApp was closely related to the Internet.org vision.According to a TechCrunch article, Zuckerberg's vision for Internet.org was as follows: "The idea, he said, is to develop a group of basic internet services that would be free of charge to use – 'a 911 for the internet.' These could be a social networking service like Facebook, a messaging service, maybe search and other things like weather. Providing a bundle of these free of charge to users will work like a gateway drug of sorts – users who may be able to afford data services and phones these days just don’t see the point of why they would pay for those data services. This would give them some context for why they are important, and that will lead them to paying for more services like this – or so the hope goes."

On May 9, 2014, the government of Iran announced that it had proposed to block the access to WhatsApp service to Iranian residents. "The reason for this is the assumption of WhatsApp by the Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, who is an American Zionist," said Abdolsamad Khorramabadi, head of the country's Committee on Internet Crimes. Subsequently Iranian president Hassan Rouhani issued an order to the Ministry of ICT to stop filtering WhatsApp.

Just three days after announcing that WhatsApp had been purchased by Facebook, Koum said they were working to introduce voice calls in the coming months. He also advanced that new mobile phones would be sold in Germany with the WhatsApp brand, as their main goal was to be in all smartphones.

Competition and shares

Competing with a number of Asian-based messaging services (like WeChat (468 million active users), Viber (209 million active users) and Japan's LINE (170 million active user)),WhatsApp handled ten billion messages per day in August 2012,growing from two billion in April 2012,and one billion the previous October.On June 13, 2013, WhatsApp announced that they had reached their new daily record by processing 27 billion messages.According to the Financial Times, WhatsApp "has done to SMS on mobile phones what Skype did to international calling on landlines."

In April 2014, WhatsApp crossed half-a-billion user mark.

As of May 2014, Whatsapp had crossed 50 million monthly active users in India, which is also its largest country by the number of monthly active users.

As of October 2014, Whatsapp has crossed 70 million monthly active users in India, which is 10% of its total user base (700 MM).

Sunday 26 April 2015

WHATSAPP HACKING

In computer science, session hijacking, sometimes also known as cookie hijacking is the exploitation of a valid computer session—sometimes also called a session key—to gain unauthorized access to information or services in a computer system. In particular, it is used to refer to the theft of a magic cookie used to authenticate a user to a remote server. It has particular relevance to web developers, as the HTTP cookies used to maintain a session on many web sites can be easily stolen by an attacker using an intermediary computer or with access to the saved cookies on the victim's computer (see HTTP cookie theft).

A popular method is using source-routed IP packets. This allows an attacker at point B on the network to participate in a conversation between A and C by encouraging the IP packets to pass through B's machine.

If source-routing is turned off, the attacker can use "blind" hijacking, whereby it guesses the responses of the two machines. Thus, the attacker can send a command, but can never see the response. However, a common command would be to set a password allowing access from somewhere else on the net.

An attacker can also be "inline" between A and C using a sniffing program to watch the conversation. This is known as a "man-in-the-middle attack".

Contents  

1 History of the HTTP
2 Methods
3 Exploits
3.1 Firesheep
3.2 WhatsApp sniffer
3.3 DroidSheep
3.4 CookieCadger
4 Prevention

History of the HTTP

Session hijacking was not possible with early versions of HTTP.

HTTP protocol versions 0.8 and 0.9 lacked cookies and other features necessary for session hijacking. Version 0.9beta of Mosaic Netscape, released on October 13, 1994, supported cookies.

Early versions of HTTP 1.0 did have some security weaknesses relating to session hijacking, but they were difficult to exploit due to the vagaries of most early HTTP 1.0 servers and browsers. As HTTP 1.0 has been designated as a fallback for HTTP 1.1 since the early 2000s—and as HTTP 1.0 servers are all essentially HTTP 1.1 servers the session hijacking problem has evolved into a nearly permanent security risk.

The introduction of supercookies and other features with the modernized HTTP 1.1 has allowed for the hijacking problem to become an ongoing security problem. Webserver and browser state machine standardization has contributed to this ongoing security problem.

Methods

There are four main methods used to perpetrate a session hijack. These are:

Session fixation, where the attacker sets a user's session id to one known to him, for example by sending the user an email with a link that contains a particular session id. The attacker now only has to wait until the user logs in.
Session sidejacking, where the attacker uses packet sniffing to read network traffic between two parties to steal the session cookie. Many web sites use SSL encryption for login pages to prevent attackers from seeing the password, but do not use encryption for the rest of the site once authenticated. This allows attackers that can read the network traffic to intercept all the data that is submitted to the server or web pages viewed by the client. Since this data includes the session cookie, it allows him to impersonate the victim, even if the password itself is not compromised.Unsecured Wi-Fi hotspots are particularly vulnerable, as anyone sharing the network will generally be able to read most of the web traffic between other nodes and the access point.
Alternatively, an attacker with physical access can simply attempt to steal the session key by, for example, obtaining the file or memory contents of the appropriate part of either the user's computer or the server.
Cross-site scripting, where the attacker tricks the user's computer into running code which is treated as trustworthy because it appears to belong to the server, allowing the attacker to obtain a copy of the cookie or perform other operations.

Exploits

Firesheep
In October 2010, a Mozilla Firefox extension called Firesheep was released that made it easy for session hijackers to attack users of unencrypted public Wi-Fi. Websites like Facebook, Twitter, and any that the user adds to their preferences allow the Firesheep user to easily access private information from cookies and threaten the public Wi-Fi user's personal property.Only months later, Facebook and Twitter responded by offering (and later requiring) HTTP Secure throughout.

WhatsApp sniffer
An app named "WhatsApp Sniffer" was made available on Google Play in May 2012, able to display messages from other WhatsApp users connected to the same network as the app user.At that time WhatsApp used an XMPP infrastructure with unencrypted, plain-text communication.

DroidSheep
DroidSheep is a simple Android tool for web session hijacking (sidejacking). It listens for HTTP packets sent via a wireless (802.11) network connection and extracts the session id from these packets in order to reuse them. DroidSheep can capture sessions using the libpcap library and supports: OPEN Networks, WEP encrypted networks, and WPA/WPA2 encrypted networks (PSK only) This software uses libpcap and arpspoof.The apk was made available on Google Play but it has been taken down by Google. The source is available here


CookieCadger

CookieCadger is a Java app that automates sidejacking and replay of insecure HTTP GET requests. Cookie Cadger helps identify information leakage from applications that utilize insecure HTTP GET requests. Web providers have started stepping up to the plate since Firesheep was released in 2010. Today, most major websites can provide SSL/TLS during all transactions, preventing cookie data from leaking over wired Ethernet or insecure Wi-Fi. Cookie Cadger is the first open-source pen-testing tool ever made for intercepting and replaying specific insecure HTTP GET requests into a browser. Cookie Cadger is a graphical utility which harnesses the power of the Wireshark suite and Java to provide a fully cross-platform, entirely open-source utility which can monitor wired Ethernet, insecure Wi-Fi, or load a packet capture file for offline analysis. Cookie Cadger has been used to highlight the weaknesses of youth team sharing sites such as Shutterfly (used by AYSO soccer league) and TeamSnap.The binary and source can be downloaded here


Prevention

Methods to prevent session hijacking include:

Encryption of the data traffic passed between the parties by using SSL/TLS; in particular the session key (though ideally all traffic for the entire session.This technique is widely relied-upon by web-based banks and other e-commerce services, because it completely prevents sniffing-style attacks. However, it could still be possible to perform some other kind of session hijack. In response, scientists from the Radboud University Nijmegen proposed in 2013 a way to prevent session hijacking by correlating the application session with the SSL/TLS credentials
Use of a long random number or string as the session key. This reduces the risk that an attacker could simply guess a valid session key through trial and error or brute force attacks.
Regenerating the session id after a successful login. This prevents session fixation because the attacker does not know the session id of the user after s/he has logged in.
Some services make secondary checks against the identity of the user. For example, a web server could check with each request made that the IP address of the user matched the one last used during that session. This does not prevent attacks by somebody who shares the same IP address, however, and could be frustrating for users whose IP address is liable to change during a browsing session.
Alternatively, some services will change the value of the cookie with each and every request. This dramatically reduces the window in which an attacker can operate and makes it easy to identify whether an attack has taken place, but can cause other technical problems (for example, two legitimate, closely timed requests from the same client can lead to a token check error on the server).
Users may also wish to log out of websites whenever they are finished using them.However this will not protect against attacks such as Firesheep.

ANDROID

Android is a mobile operating system (OS) based on the Linux kernel and currently developed by Google. With a user interface based on direct manipulation, Android is designed primarily for touchscreen mobile devices such as smartphones and tablet computers, with specialized user interfaces for televisions (Android TV), cars (Android Auto), and wrist watches (Android Wear). The OS uses touch inputs that loosely correspond to real-world actions, like swiping, tapping, pinching, and reverse pinching to manipulate on-screen objects, and a virtual keyboard. Despite being primarily designed for touchscreen input, it also has been used in game consoles, digital cameras, regular PCs (e.g. the HP Slate 21) and other electronics.

As of July 2013, the Google Play store has had over one million Android applications ("apps") published, and over 50 billion applications downloaded.A developer survey conducted in April–May 2013 found that 71% of mobile developers develop for Android.At Google I/O 2014, the company revealed that there were over one billion active monthly Android users, up from 538 million in June 2013.As of 2015, Android has the largest installed base of all general-purpose operating systems.

Android's source code is released by Google under open source licenses, although most Android devices ultimately ship with a combination of open source and proprietary software, including proprietary software developed and licensed by Google.Initially developed by Android, Inc., which Google backed financially and later bought in 2005,Android was unveiled in 2007, along with the founding of the Open Handset Alliance—?a consortium of hardware, software, and telecommunication companies devoted to advancing open standards for mobile devices.

Android is popular with technology companies which require a ready-made, low-cost and customizable operating system for high-tech devices.Android's open nature has encouraged a large community of developers and enthusiasts to use the open-source code as a foundation for community-driven projects, which add new features for advanced users or bring Android to devices which were officially released running other operating systems. The operating system's success has made it a target for patent litigation as part of the so-called "smartphone wars" between technology companies.

Contents

1 History
2 Features
2.1 Interface
2.2 Applications
2.3 Memory management
3 Hardware
4 Development
4.1 Update schedule
4.2 Linux kernel
4.3 Software stack
4.4 Open-source community
5 Security and privacy
6 Licensing
6.1 Leverage over manufacturers
7 Reception
7.1 Market share
7.2 Tablets
7.3 Desktops and laptops
7.4 Platform usage
7.5 Application piracy
8 Legal issues
9 Use outside of smartphones and tablets

History

Android, Inc. was founded in Palo Alto, California in October 2003 by Andy Rubin (co-founder of Danger),Rich Miner (co-founder of Wildfire Communications, Inc.),Nick Sears (once VP at T-Mobile),and Chris White (headed design and interface development at WebTV to develop, in Rubin's words, "smarter mobile devices that are more aware of its owner's location and preferences".The early intentions of the company were to develop an advanced operating system for digital cameras. Though, when it was realized that the market for the devices was not large enough, the company diverted its efforts toward producing a smartphone operating system that would rival Symbian and Microsoft Windows Mobile.Despite the past accomplishments of the founders and early employees, Android Inc. operated secretly, revealing only that it was working on software for mobile phones.That same year, Rubin ran out of money. Steve Perlman, a close friend of Rubin, brought him $10,000 in cash in an envelope and refused a stake in the company.

Google acquired Android Inc. on August 17, 2005; key employees of Android Inc., including Rubin, Miner, and White, stayed at the company after the acquisition.Not much was known about Android Inc. at the time, but many assumed that Google was planning to enter the mobile phone market with this move.At Google, the team led by Rubin developed a mobile device platform powered by the Linux kernel. Google marketed the platform to handset makers and carriers on the promise of providing a flexible, upgradable system. Google had lined up a series of hardware component and software partners and signaled to carriers that it was open to various degrees of cooperation on their part.

Speculation about Google's intention to enter the mobile communications market continued to build through December 2006.An earlier prototype codenamed "Sooner" had a closer resemblance to a BlackBerry phone, with no touchscreen, and a physical, QWERTY keyboard, but was later re-engineered to support a touchscreen, to compete with other announced devices such as the 2006 LG Prada and 2007 Apple iPhone.In September 2007, InformationWeek covered an Evalueserve study reporting that Google had filed several patent applications in the area of mobile telephony.


Eric Schmidt, Andy Rubin, and Hugo Barra at a press conference for the Google's Nexus 7 tablet
On November 5, 2007, the Open Handset Alliance, a consortium of technology companies including Google, device manufacturers such as HTC, Sony and Samsung, wireless carriers such as Sprint Nextel and T-Mobile, and chipset makers such as Qualcomm and Texas Instruments, unveiled itself, with a goal to develop open standards for mobile devices.That day, Android was unveiled as its first product, a mobile device platform built on the Linux kernel version 2.6.25.The first commercially available smartphone running Android was the HTC Dream, released on October 22, 2008.

In 2010, Google launched its Nexus series of devices – a line of smartphones and tablets running the Android operating system, and built by manufacturing partners. HTC collaborated with Google to release the first Nexus smartphone,the Nexus One. Google has since updated the series with newer devices, such as the Nexus 5 phone (made by LG) and the Nexus 7 tablet (made by Asus). Google releases the Nexus phones and tablets to act as their flagship Android devices, demonstrating Android's latest software and hardware features. Until January 2015, Google offered several Google Play Edition devices over Google Play, as Google-customized Android phones and tablets that, while not carrying the Google Nexus branding, run an unmodified version of Android.

On March 13, 2013 Larry Page announced in a blog post that Andy Rubin had moved from the Android division to take on new projects at Google.He was replaced by Sundar Pichai, who also continues his role as the head of Google's Chrome division,which develops Chrome OS.

Since 2008, Android has seen numerous updates which have incrementally improved the operating system, adding new features and fixing bugs in previous releases. Each major release is named in alphabetical order after a dessert or sugary treat; for example, version 1.5 "Cupcake" was followed by 1.6 "Donut". Version 4.4.4 "KitKat" appeared as a security-only update; it was released on June 19, 2014, shortly after 4.4.3 was released.Android 5.0 "Lollipop" was released on November 14, 2014, introducing "material design" as a new design language and one if its key new features; it was followed by two bugfix releases (5.0.1 and 5.0.2).

In 2014, Google launched Android One, a standardized smartphone, mainly targeting customers in the developing world. Android One smartphones running the latest version of Android (e.g. the latest Android 5.1) close to the stock version of the operating system. As of March 3, 2015, the newest version of the Android operating system, 5.1, is available for selected devices including the Android One series, the Nexus 6 phablet, and the Nexus 9 tablet.

From 2010 to 2013, Hugo Barra served as product spokesperson for the Android team, representing Android at both press conferences and Google I/O, Google’s annual developer-focused conference. Barra's product involvement included the entire Android ecosystem of software and hardware, including Honeycomb, Ice Cream Sandwich, Jelly Bean and KitKat operating system launches, the Nexus 4 and Nexus 5 smartphones, the Nexus 7 and Nexus 10 tablets,and other related products such as Google Now and Google Voice Search, Google’s speech recognition product comparable to Apple’s Siri.In 2013, Barra left the Android team for Chinese smartphone maker Xiaomi.


Features

Interface


Notifications are accessed by sliding from the top of the display; individual notifications can be dismissed by sliding them away, and may contain additional functions (such as on the "missed call" notification seen here).
Android's default user interface is based on direct manipulation,using touch inputs, that loosely correspond to real-world actions, like swiping, tapping, pinching, and reverse pinching to manipulate on-screen objects, and a virtual keyboard.The response to user input is designed to be immediate and provides a fluid touch interface, often using the vibration capabilities of the device to provide haptic feedback to the user. Internal hardware such as accelerometers, gyroscopes and proximity sensors are used by some applications to respond to additional user actions, for example adjusting the screen from portrait to landscape depending on how the device is oriented, or allowing the user to steer a vehicle in a racing game by rotating the device, simulating control of a steering wheel.

Android devices boot to the homescreen, the primary navigation and information point on the device, which is similar to the desktop found on PCs. Android homescreens are typically made up of app icons and widgets; app icons launch the associated app, whereas widgets display live, auto-updating content such as the weather forecast, the user's email inbox, or a news ticker directly on the homescreen.A homescreen may be made up of several pages that the user can swipe back and forth between, though Android's homescreen interface is heavily customisable, allowing the user to adjust the look and feel of the device to their tastes.Third-party apps available on Google Play and other app stores can extensively re-theme the homescreen, and even mimic the look of other operating systems, such as Windows Phone.Most manufacturers, and some wireless carriers, customise the look and feel of their Android devices to differentiate themselves from their competitors.

Present along the top of the screen is a status bar, showing information about the device and its connectivity. This status bar can be "pulled" down to reveal a notification screen where apps display important information or updates, such as a newly received email or SMS text, in a way that does not immediately interrupt or inconvenience the user.Notifications are persistent until read (by tapping, which opens the relevant app) or dismissed by sliding it off the screen. Beginning on Android 4.1, "expanded notifications" can display expanded details or additional functionality; for instance, a music player can display playback controls, and a "missed call" notification provides buttons for calling back or sending the caller an SMS message.

Android provides the ability to run applications which change the default launcher and hence the appearance and externally visible behaviour of Android. These appearance changes include a multi-page dock or no dock, and many more changes to fundamental features of the user interface.

Applications

Applications ("apps"), that extend the functionality of devices, are written primarily in the Java programming language (without the usual "write once, run anywhere" claim of the Java platform) using the Android software development kit (SDK). The SDK includes a comprehensive set of development tools,including a debugger, software libraries, a handset emulator based on QEMU, documentation, sample code, and tutorials. Initially, Google's supported integrated development environment (IDE) was Eclipse using the Android Development Tools (ADT) plugin; in December 2014, Google released Android Studio, based on IntelliJ IDEA, as its primary IDE for Android application development. Other development tools are available, including a Native Development Kit for applications or extensions in C or C++, Google App Inventor, a visual environment for novice programmers, and various cross platform mobile web applications frameworks. In January 2014, Google unveiled an Apache Cordova–based framework for porting Chrome HTML 5 applications to Android, wrapped in a native application shell.

Android has a growing selection of third-party applications, which can be acquired by users by downloading and installing the application's APK file, or by downloading them using an application store program that allows users to install, update, and remove applications from their devices. Google Play Store is the primary application store installed on Android devices that comply with Google's compatibility requirements and license the Google Mobile Services software.Google Play Store allows users to browse, download and update applications published by Google and third-party developers; As of July 2013, there are more than one million applications available for Android in Play Store.As of May 2013, 48 billion applications have been installed from Google Play Store and in July 2013, 50 billion applications were installed.Some carriers offer direct carrier billing for Google Play application purchases, where the cost of the application is added to the user's monthly bill.

Due to the open nature of Android, a number of third-party application marketplaces also exist for Android, either to provide a substitute for devices that are not allowed to ship with Google Play Store, provide applications that cannot be offered on Google Play Store due to policy violations, or for other reasons. Examples of these third-party stores have included the Amazon Appstore, GetJar, and SlideMe. F-Droid, another alternative marketplace, seeks to only provide applications that are distributed under free and open source licenses.

Memory management

Since Android devices are usually battery-powered, Android is designed to manage memory (RAM) to keep power consumption at a minimum, in contrast to desktop operating systems which generally assume they are connected to unlimited mains electricity. When an Android application is no longer in use, the system will automatically suspend it in memory; while the application is still technically "open", suspended applications consume no resources (for example, battery power or processing power) and sit idly in the background until needed again. This brings a dual benefit by increasing the general responsiveness of Android devices, since applications do not need to be closed and reopened from scratch each time, and by ensuring that background applications do not consume power needlessly.

Android manages the applications stored in memory automatically: when memory is low, the system will begin killing applications and processes that have been inactive for a while, in reverse order since they were last used (oldest first). This process is designed to be invisible to the user, so that users do not need to manage memory or the killing of applications themselves.As of 2011, third-party task killers were reported by Lifehacker as doing more harm than good.

Hardware

The main hardware platform for Android is the ARM architecture (ARMv7 and ARMv8-A architectures), with x86 and MIPS architectures also officially supported (the latter two became officially supported in later Android versions). Since Android 5.0 "Lollipop", 64-bit variants of all platforms are supported in addition to the 32-bit variants.Unofficial Android-x86 project used to provide support for the x86 and MIPS architectures ahead of the official support.Since 2012, Android devices with Intel processors began to appear, including phones and tablets. While gaining support for 64-bit platforms, Android was first made to run on 64-bit x86 and then on ARM64.

As of November 2013, Android 4.4 recommends at least 512 MB of RAM,while for "low RAM" devices 340 MB is the required minimum amount that does not include memory dedicated to various hardware components such as the baseband processor.Android 4.4 requires a 32-bit ARMv7, MIPS or x86 architecture processor (latter two through unofficial ports),together with an OpenGL ES 2.0 compatible graphics processing unit (GPU).Android supports OpenGL ES 1.1, 2.0, 3.0 and 3.1. Some applications may explicitly require a certain version of the OpenGL ES, and suitable GPU hardware is required to run such applications.

Android devices incorporate many optional hardware components, including still or video cameras, GPS, orientation sensors, dedicated gaming controls, accelerometers, gyroscopes, barometers, magnetometers, proximity sensors, pressure sensors, thermometers, and touchscreens. Some hardware components are not required, but became standard in certain classes of devices, such as smartphones, and additional requirements apply if they are present. Some other hardware was initially required, but those requirements have been relaxed or eliminated altogether. For example, as Android was developed initially as a phone OS, hardware such as microphones were required, while over time the phone function became optional.Android used to require an autofocus camera, which was relaxed to a fixed-focus camera if it is even present at all, since the camera was dropped as a requirement entirely when Android started to be used on set-top boxes.

In addition to running on smartphones and tablets, several vendors run Android natively on regular PC hardware with a keyboard and mouse.In addition to their availability on commercially available hardware, similar PC hardware–friendly versions of Android are freely available from the Android-x86 project, including customized Android 4.4.Using the Android emulator that is part of the Android SDK, or by using BlueStacks or Andy, Android can also run non-natively on x86.Chinese companies are building a PC and mobile operating system, based on Android, to "compete directly with Microsoft Windows and Google Android".The Chinese Academy of Engineering noted that "more than a dozen" companies were customising Android following a Chinese ban on the use of Windows 8 on government PCs.

Development


Android green figure, next to its original packaging.
Android is developed in private by Google until the latest changes and updates are ready to be released, at which point the source code is made available publicly. This source code will only run without modification on select devices, usually the Nexus series of devices. The source code is, in turn, adapted by OEMs to run on their hardware.Android's source code does not contain the often proprietary device drivers that are needed for certain hardware components.

The green Android logo was designed for Google in 2007 by graphic designer Irina Blok. The design team was tasked with a project to create a universally identifiable icon with the specific inclusion of a robot in the final design. After numerous design developments based on science-fiction and space movies, the team eventually sought inspiration from the human symbol on restroom doors and modified the figure into a robot shape. As Android is open-sourced, it was agreed that the logo should be likewise, and since its launch the green logo has been reinterpreted into countless variations on the original design.

Update schedule

Google provides major incremental upgrades to Android every six to nine months, with confectionery-themed names, which most devices are capable of receiving over the air.The latest major release is Android 5.0 "Lollipop".

Compared to its chief rival mobile operating system, namely iOS, Android updates are typically slow to reach actual devices. For devices not under the Nexus brand, updates often arrive months from the time the given version is officially released.This is partly due to the extensive variation in hardware of Android devices, to which each upgrade must be specifically tailored, as the official Google source code only runs on their flagship Nexus devices. Porting Android to specific hardware is a time- and resource-consuming process for device manufacturers, who prioritize their newest devices and often leave older ones behind.Hence, older smartphones are frequently not updated if the manufacturer decides it is not worth their time, regardless of whether the phone is capable of running the update. This problem is compounded when manufacturers customize Android with their own interface and apps, which must be reapplied to each new release. Additional delays can be introduced by wireless carriers who, after receiving updates from manufacturers, further customize and brand Android to their needs and conduct extensive testing on their networks before sending the upgrade out to users.

The lack of after-sale support from manufacturers and carriers has been widely criticized by consumer groups and the technology media.Some commentators have noted that the industry has a financial incentive not to upgrade their devices, as the lack of updates for existing devices fuels the purchase of newer ones,an attitude described as "insulting".The Guardian has complained that the method of distribution for updates is complicated only because manufacturers and carriers have designed it that way.In 2011, Google partnered with a number of industry players to announce an "Android Update Alliance", pledging to deliver timely updates for every device for 18 months after its release;however, there has not been another official word about that alliance.

In 2012, Google began decoupling certain aspects of the operating system (particularly core applications) so they could be updated through Google Play Store, independently of Android itself. One of these components, Google Play Services, is a closed-source system-level process providing APIs for Google services, installed automatically on nearly all devices running Android version 2.2 and higher. With these changes, Google can add new operating system functionality through Play Services and application updates without having to distribute an upgrade to the operating system itself. As a result, Android 4.2 and 4.3 contained relatively fewer user-facing changes, focusing more on minor changes and platform improvements.

Linux kernel

Android's kernel is based on one of the Linux kernel's long-term support (LTS) branches. Since April 2014, Android devices mainly use versions 3.4 or 3.10 of the Linux kernel.The specific kernel version depends on the actual Android device and its hardware platform; Android has used various kernel versions since the version 2.6.25 that was used in Android 1.0.

Android's variant of the Linux kernel has further architectural changes that are implemented by Google outside the typical Linux kernel development cycle, such as the inclusion of components like Binder, ashmem, pmem, logger, wakelocks, and different out-of-memory (OOM) handling.Certain features that Google contributed back to the Linux kernel, notably a power management feature called "wakelocks", were rejected by mainline kernel developers partly because they felt that Google did not show any intent to maintain its own code. Google announced in April 2010 that they would hire two employees to work with the Linux kernel community,but Greg Kroah-Hartman, the current Linux kernel maintainer for the stable branch, said in December 2010 that he was concerned that Google was no longer trying to get their code changes included in mainstream Linux.Some Google Android developers hinted that "the Android team was getting fed up with the process," because they were a small team and had more urgent work to do on Android.

In August 2011, Linus Torvalds said that "eventually Android and Linux would come back to a common kernel, but it will probably not be for four to five years".In December 2011, Greg Kroah-Hartman announced the start of Android Mainlining Project, which aims to put some Android drivers, patches and features back into the Linux kernel, starting in Linux 3.3.Linux included the autosleep and wakelocks capabilities in the 3.5 kernel, after many previous attempts at merger. The interfaces are the same but the upstream Linux implementation allows for two different suspend modes: to memory (the traditional suspend that Android uses), and to disk (hibernate, as it is known on the desktop).Google maintains a public code repository that contains their experimental work to re-base Android off the latest stable Linux versions.

The flash storage on Android devices is split into several partitions, such as /system for the operating system itself, and /data for user data and application installations.In contrast to desktop Linux distributions, Android device owners are not given root access to the operating system and sensitive partitions such as /system are read-only. However, root access can be obtained by exploiting security flaws in Android, which is used frequently by the open-source community to enhance the capabilities of their devices,but also by malicious parties to install viruses and malware.

Android is a Linux distribution according to the Linux Foundation,Google's open-source chief Chris DiBona,and several journalists. Others, such as Google engineer Patrick Brady, say that Android is not Linux in the traditional Unix-like Linux distribution sense; Android does not include the GNU C Library (it uses Bionic as an alternative C library) and some of other components typically found in Linux distributions.

Software stack


Android's architecture diagram
This section requires expansion. (December 2013)
On top of the Linux kernel, there are the middleware, libraries and APIs written in C, and application software running on an application framework which includes Java-compatible libraries based on Apache Harmony. Development of the Linux kernel continues independently of other Android's source code bases.

Until version 5.0, Android used Dalvik as a process virtual machine with trace-based just-in-time (JIT) compilation to run Dalvik "dex-code" (Dalvik Executable), which is usually translated from the Java bytecode. Following the trace-based JIT principle, in addition to interpreting the majority of application code, Dalvik performs the compilation and native execution of select frequently executed code segments ("traces") each time an application is launched. Android 4.4 introduced Android Runtime (ART) as a new runtime environment, which uses ahead-of-time (AOT) compilation to entirely compile the application bytecode into machine code upon the installation of an application. In Android 4.4, ART was an experimental feature and not enabled by default; it became the only runtime option in the next major version of Android, 5.0.

Android's standard C library, Bionic, was developed by Google specifically for Android, as a derivation of the BSD's standard C library code. Bionic itself has been designed with several major features specific to the Linux kernel. The main benefits of using Bionic instead of the GNU C Library (glibc) or uClibc are its smaller runtime footprint, and optimization for low-frequency CPUs. At the same time, Bionic is licensed under the terms of BSD licence, which Google finds more suitable for the Android's overall licensing model.

Aiming for a different licensing model, toward the end of 2012 Google switched the Bluetooth stack in Android from the GPL-licensed BlueZ to the Apache-licensed BlueDroid.

Android does not have a native X Window System by default, nor does it support the full set of standard GNU libraries. This made it difficult to port existing Linux applications or libraries to Android,until version r5 of the Android Native Development Kit brought support for applications written completely in C or C++.Libraries written in C may also be used in applications by injection of a small shim and usage of the JNI.

Open-source community

Android has an active community of developers and enthusiasts who use the Android Open Source Project (AOSP) source code to develop and distribute their own modified versions of the operating system.These community-developed releases often bring new features and updates to devices faster than through the official manufacturer/carrier channels, albeit without as extensive testing or quality assurance;provide continued support for older devices that no longer receive official updates; or bring Android to devices that were officially released running other operating systems, such as the HP TouchPad. Community releases often come pre-rooted and contain modifications unsuitable for non-technical users, such as the ability to overclock or over/undervolt the device's processor.CyanogenMod is the most widely used community firmware,and acts as a foundation for numerous others.

Historically, device manufacturers and mobile carriers have typically been unsupportive of third-party firmware development. Manufacturers express concern about improper functioning of devices running unofficial software and the support costs resulting from this.Moreover, modified firmwares such as CyanogenMod sometimes offer features, such as tethering, for which carriers would otherwise charge a premium. As a result, technical obstacles including locked bootloaders and restricted access to root permissions are common in many devices. However, as community-developed software has grown more popular, and following a statement by the Librarian of Congress in the United States that permits the "jailbreaking" of mobile devices,manufacturers and carriers have softened their position regarding third party development, with some, including HTC,Motorola,Samsung and Sony,providing support and encouraging development. As a result of this, over time the need to circumvent hardware restrictions to install unofficial firmware has lessened as an increasing number of devices are shipped with unlocked or unlockable bootloaders, similar to Nexus series of phones, although usually requiring that users waive their devices' warranties to do so.However, despite manufacturer acceptance, some carriers in the US still require that phones are locked down, frustrating developers and customers.

Security and privacy


Permissions are used to control a particular application's access to system functions.
Android applications run in a sandbox, an isolated area of the system that does not have access to the rest of the system's resources, unless access permissions are explicitly granted by the user when the application is installed. Before installing an application, Play Store displays all required permissions: a game may need to enable vibration or save data to an SD card, for example, but should not need to read SMS messages or access the phonebook. After reviewing these permissions, the user can choose to accept or refuse them, installing the application only if they accept.The sandboxing and permissions system lessens the impact of vulnerabilities and bugs in applications, but developer confusion and limited documentation has resulted in applications routinely requesting unnecessary permissions, reducing its effectiveness.Google has now pushed an update to Android Verify Apps feature, which will now run in background to detect malicious processes and crack them down.

The "App Ops" privacy and application permissions control system, used for internal development and testing by Google, was introduced in Google's Android 4.3 release for the Nexus devices. Initially hidden, the feature was discovered publicly; it allowed users to install a management application and approve or deny permission requests individually for each of the applications installed on a device.Access to the App Ops was later restricted by Google starting with Android 4.4.2 with an explanation that the feature was accidentally enabled and not intended for end-users; for such a decision, Google received criticism from the Electronic Frontier Foundation.Individual application permissions management, through the App Ops or third-party tools, is currently only possible with root access to the device.

Research from security company Trend Micro lists premium service abuse as the most common type of Android malware, where text messages are sent from infected phones to premium-rate telephone numbers without the consent or even knowledge of the user.Other malware displays unwanted and intrusive adverts on the device, or sends personal information to unauthorised third parties.Security threats on Android are reportedly growing exponentially; however, Google engineers have argued that the malware and virus threat on Android is being exaggerated by security companies for commercial reasons, and have accused the security industry of playing on fears to sell virus protection software to users.Google maintains that dangerous malware is actually extremely rare,and a survey conducted by F-Secure showed that only 0.5% of Android malware reported had come from the Google Play store.

Google currently uses Google Bouncer malware scanner to watch over and scan the Google Play store apps.It is intended to flag up suspicious apps and warn users of any potential threat with an application before they download it.Android version 4.2 Jelly Bean was released in 2012 with enhanced security features, including a malware scanner built into the system, which works in combination with Google Play but can scan apps installed from third party sources as well, and an alert system which notifies the user when an app tries to send a premium-rate text message, blocking the message unless the user explicitly authorises it.Several security firms, such as Lookout Mobile Security,AVG Technologies,and McAfee,have released antivirus software for Android devices. This software is ineffective as sandboxing also applies to such applications, limiting their ability to scan the deeper system for threats.

Android smartphones have the ability to report the location of Wi-Fi access points, encountered as phone users move around, to build databases containing the physical locations of hundreds of millions of such access points. These databases form electronic maps to locate smartphones, allowing them to run apps like Foursquare, Google Latitude, Facebook Places, and to deliver location-based ads.Third party monitoring software such as TaintDroid,an academic research-funded project, can, in some cases, detect when personal information is being sent from applications to remote servers.In August 2013, Google released Android Device Manager (ADM), a component that allows users to remotely track, locate, and wipe their Android device through a web interface.In December 2013, Google released ADM as an Android application on the Google Play store, where it is available to devices running Android version 2.2 and higher.

The open-source nature of Android allows security contractors to take existing devices and adapt them for highly secure uses. For example Samsung has worked with General Dynamics through their Open Kernel Labs acquisition to rebuild Jelly Bean on top of their hardened microvisor for the "Knox" project.

As part of the broader 2013 mass surveillance disclosures it was revealed in September 2013 that the American and British intelligence agencies, the National Security Agency (NSA) and Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), respectively, have access to the user data on iPhone, BlackBerry, and Android devices. They are reportedly able to read almost all smartphone information, including SMS, location, emails, and notes.In January 2014, further reports revealed the intelligence agencies' capabilities to intercept the personal information transmitted across the Internet by social networks and other popular applications such as Angry Birds, which collect personal information of their users for advertising and other commercial reasons. GCHQ has, according to The Guardian, a wiki-style guide of different apps and advertising networks, and the different data that can be siphoned from each.Later that week, the Finnish Angry Birds developer Rovio announced that it was reconsidering its relationships with its advertising platforms in the light of these revelations, and called upon the wider industry to do the same.

The documents revealed a further effort by the intelligence agencies to intercept Google Maps searches and queries submitted from Android and other smartphones to collect location information in bulk.The NSA and GCHQ insist their activities are in compliance with all relevant domestic and international laws, although the Guardian stated "the latest disclosures could also add to mounting public concern about how the technology sector collects and uses information, especially for those outside the US, who enjoy fewer privacy protections than Americans."

Licensing

The source code for Android is open source; it is developed in private by Google, with the source code released publicly when a new version of Android is released. Google publishes most of the code (including network and telephony stacks) under the non-copyleft Apache License version 2.0. which allows modification and redistribution.The license does not grant rights to the "Android" trademark, so device manufacturers and wireless carriers have to license it from Google under individual contracts. Associated Linux kernel changes are released under the copyleft GNU General Public License version 2, developed by the Open Handset Alliance, with the source code publicly available at all times. Typically, Google collaborates with a hardware manufacturer to produce a flagship device (part of the Nexus series) featuring the new version of Android, then makes the source code available after that device has been released.The only Android release which was not immediately made available as source code was the tablet-only 3.0 Honeycomb release. The reason, according to Andy Rubin in an official Android blog post, was because Honeycomb was rushed for production of the Motorola Xoom,and they did not want third parties creating a "really bad user experience" by attempting to put onto smartphones a version of Android intended for tablets.

While all of Android itself is open source software, most Android devices ship with a large amount of proprietary software, such as Google Mobile Services, which includes apps such as Google Play Store, Google Search, and Google Play Services—a software layer which provides APIs that integrate with Google-provided services, among others. These apps must be licensed from Google by device makers, and can only be shipped on devices which meet its compatibility guidelines and other requirements.Custom, certified distributions of Android produced by manufacturers (such as TouchWiz and HTC Sense) may also replace certain stock Android apps with their own proprietary variants and add additional software not included in the stock Android operating system.There may also be "binary blob" drivers required for certain hardware components in the device.

Several stock apps in Android's open source code used by previous versions (such as Search, Music, and Calendar) have also been effectively deprecated by Google, with development having shifted to newer but proprietary versions distributed and updated through Play Store, such as Google Search and Google Play Music. While these older apps remain in Android's source code, they have no longer received any major updates. Additionally, proprietary variants of the stock Camera and Gallery apps also include certain functions (such as Photosphere panoramas and Google+ album integration) that are excluded from open source versions (however, they have yet to be completely abandoned). Similarly, the Nexus 5 uses a non-free variation of Android 4.4's home screen that is embedded directly within the Google Search app, adding voice-activated search and the ability to access Google Now as a page on the home screen itself. Although an update for Google Search app containing the relevant components was released through Google Play for all Android devices, the new home screen required an additional stub application to function, and was not provided in Android 4.4 updates for any other devices (which still used the existing home screen from Android version 4.3). The stub application was officially released on Play Store as Google Now Launcher in February 2014, initially for Nexus and Google Play Edition devices with Android version 4.4.

Richard Stallman and the Free Software Foundation have been critical of Android and have recommended the usage of alternatives such as Replicant, because drivers and firmware vital for the proper functioning of Android devices are usually proprietary, and because Google Play can forcibly install or deinstall apps and invites non-free software.

Leverage over manufacturers

Google licenses their Google Mobile Services software, along with Android trademarks, only to hardware manufacturers for devices that meet Google's compatibility standards specified in the Android Compatibility Program document.Thus, forks of Android that make major changes to the operating system itself do not include any of Google's non-free components, stay incompatible with applications that require them, and must ship with an alternative software marketplace in lieu of Google Play Store.Examples of such Android forks are Amazon's Fire OS (which is used on the Kindle Fire line of tablets, and oriented toward Amazon services), the Nokia X Software Platform (a fork used by the Nokia X family, oriented primarily toward Nokia and Microsoft services), and other forks that exclude Google apps due to the general unavailability of Google service in that country and licensing fees (such as in China).In 2014, Google also began to require that all Android devices which license the Google Mobile Services software display a prominent "Powered by Android" logo on their boot screens.

Members of the Open Handset Alliance, which include the majority of Android OEMs, are also contractually forbidden from producing Android devices based on forks of the OS;in 2012, Acer Inc. was forced by Google to halt production on a device powered by Alibaba Group's Aliyun OS with threats of removal from the OHA, as Google deemed the platform to be an incompatible version of Android. Alibaba Group defended the allegations, arguing that the OS was a distinct platform from Android (primarily using HTML5 apps), but incorporated portions of Android's platform to allow backwards compatibility with third-party Android software. Indeed, the devices did ship with an application store which offered Android apps; however, the majority of them were pirated.

Reception


Android-x86 running on an ASUS EeePC netbook; Android has been unofficially ported to traditional PCs for use as a desktop operating system.
Android received a lukewarm reaction when it was unveiled in 2007. Although analysts were impressed with the respected technology companies that had partnered with Google to form the Open Handset Alliance, it was unclear whether mobile phone manufacturers would be willing to replace their existing operating systems with Android.The idea of an open-source, Linux-based development platform sparked interest,but there were additional worries about Android facing strong competition from established players in the smartphone market, such as Nokia and Microsoft, and rival Linux mobile operating systems that were in development.These established players were skeptical: Nokia was quoted as saying "we don't see this as a threat," and a member of Microsoft's Windows Mobile team stated "I don't understand the impact that they are going to have."

Since then Android has grown to become the most widely used smartphone operating system and "one of the fastest mobile experiences available." Reviewers have highlighted the open-source nature of the operating system as one of its defining strengths, allowing companies such as Nokia (Nokia X family),Amazon (Kindle Fire), Barnes & Noble (Nook), Ouya, Baidu and others to fork the software and release hardware running their own customised version of Android. As a result, it has been described by technology website Ars Technica as "practically the default operating system for launching new hardware" for companies without their own mobile platforms.This openness and flexibility is also present at the level of the end user: Android allows extensive customisation of devices by their owners and apps are freely available from non-Google app stores and third party websites. These have been cited as among the main advantages of Android phones over others.

Despite Android's popularity, including an activation rate three times that of iOS, there have been reports that Google has not been able to leverage their other products and web services successfully to turn Android into the money maker that analysts had expected.The Verge suggested that Google is losing control of Android due to the extensive customization and proliferation of non-Google apps and services—Amazon's Kindle Fire line uses Fire OS, a heavily modified fork of Android which does not include or support any of Google's proprietary components, and requires that users obtain software from its competing Amazon Appstore instead of Play Store.In 2014, in an effort to improve prominence of the Android brand, Google began to require that devices featuring its proprietary components display an Android logo on the boot screen.

Android has suffered from "fragmentation",a situation where the variety of Android devices, in terms of both hardware variations and differences in the software running on them, makes the task of developing applications that work consistently across the ecosystem harder than rival platforms such as iOS where hardware and software varies less. For example, according to data from OpenSignal in July 2013, there were 11,868 models of Android device, numerous different screen sizes and eight Android OS versions simultaneously in use, while the large majority of iOS users have upgraded to the latest iteration of that OS.Critics such as Apple Insider have asserted that fragmentation via hardware and software pushed Android's growth through large volumes of low end, budget-priced devices running older versions of Android. They maintain this forces Android developers to write for the "lowest common denominator" to reach as many users as possible, who have too little incentive to make use of the latest hardware or software features only available on a smaller percentage of devices.However, OpenSignal, who develops both Android and iOS apps, concluded that although fragmentation can make development trickier, Android's wider global reach also increases the potential reward.

Market share

Research company Canalys estimated in the second quarter of 2009 that Android had a 2.8% share of worldwide smartphone shipments.By the fourth quarter of 2010 this had grown to 33% of the market, becoming the top-selling smartphone platform,overtaking Symbian.By the third quarter of 2011 Gartner estimated that more than half (52.5%) of the smartphone sales belonged to Android.By the third quarter of 2012 Android had a 75% share of the global smartphone market according to the research firm IDC.

In July 2011, Google said that 550,000 new Android devices were being activated every day,up from 400,000 per day in May,and more than 100 million devices had been activatedwith 4.4% growth per week.In September 2012, 500 million devices had been activated with 1.3 million activations per day.In May 2013, at Google I/O, Sundar Pichai announced that 900 million Android devices had been activated.

Android market share varies by location. In July 2012, "mobile subscribers aged 13+" in the United States using Android were up to 52%,and rose to 90% in China.During the third quarter of 2012, Android's worldwide smartphone shipment market share was 75%,with 750 million devices activated in total. In April 2013 Android had 1.5 million activations per day.As of May 2013, 48 billion applications ("apps") have been installed from the Google Play store,and by September 2013, one billion Android devices have been activated.

As of July 2013, the Google Play store has had over one million Android applications published, and over 50 billion applications downloaded.A developer survey conducted in April–May 2013 found that Android is used by 71% of mobile developers.The operating system's success has made it a target for patent litigation as part of the so-called "smartphone wars" between technology companies.

Android devices account for more than half of smartphone sales in most markets, including the US, while "only in Japan was Apple on top" (September–November 2013 numbers).At the end of 2013, over 1.5 billion Android smartphones have been sold in the four years since 2010,making Android the most sold phone and tablet OS. Three billion Android smartphones are estimated to be sold by the end of 2014 (including previous years). According to Gartner research company, Android-based devices outsold all contenders, every year since 2012.In 2013, it outsold Windows 2.8:1 or by 573 million.Android has the largest installed base of all general-purpose operating systems; as of 2013, devices running it also sell more than Windows, iOS and Mac OS X devices combined.

Since July 2014, Android is the most popular mobile operating system when it comes to use for web browsing, according to NetApplications.In India and other countries, Android is the most popular operating system overall (not just counting the "mobile" ones) for web browsing usage. According to StatCounter, "mobile usage has already overtaken desktop in several countries including India, South Africa and Saudi Arabia",with several countries in Africa having done so already, including Ethiopia and Kenya in which mobile usage is at 72.23%.

While Android phones in the west commonly include Google's proprietary add-ons (such as Google Play) to the otherwise open source operating system, increasingly this is not done in emerging markets; "ABI Research claims that 65 million devices shipped globally with open-source Android in the second quarter of [2014], up from 54 million in the first quarter"; depending on country, percent of phones estimated to be based only on Android's source code (AOSP), forgoing the Android trademark: Thailand (44%), Philippines (38%), Indonesia (31%), India (21%), Malaysia (24%), Mexico (18%), Brazil (9%).

According to Gartner, "Android surpassed a billion shipments of devices in 2014, and will continue to grow at a double-digit pace in 2015, with a 26 percent increase year over year." This makes it the first time that any general-purpose operating system has reached more than one billion end users within a year: by reaching close to 1.16 billion end users in 2014, Android shipped over four times more than iOS and OS X combined, and over three times more than Microsoft Windows. Gartner expects the whole mobile phone market to "reach two billion units in 2016", including Android.

By Statistica's estimate, Android smartphones have an installed base, in 2014, of 1600 million Androids smartphones (75% of the estimated 2.2 billion);To put the Statistica's numbers in context: by Strategy Analytics estimates, Windows the most popular "desktop" operating system, has an estimated installed base of about 1300 million at best;they also estimate the overall tablet installed base to be already of comparable size to the PC market and predict tablets will have surpassed them by 2018. Most of the tablet installed base consists of Androids that add to the above Android smartphone numbers.

Tablets


The first-generation Nexus 7 tablet
Despite its success on smartphones, initially Android tablet adoption was slow.One of the main causes was the chicken or the egg situation where consumers were hesitant to buy an Android tablet due to a lack of high quality tablet applications, but developers were hesitant to spend time and resources developing tablet applications until there was a significant market for them.The content and app "ecosystem" proved more important than hardware specs as the selling point for tablets. Due to the lack of Android tablet-specific applications in 2011, early Android tablets had to make do with existing smartphone applications that were ill-suited to larger screen sizes, whereas the dominance of Apple's iPad was reinforced by the large number of tablet-specific iOS applications.

Despite app support in its infancy, a considerable number of Android tablets (alongside those using other operating systems, such as the HP TouchPad and BlackBerry PlayBook) were rushed out to market in an attempt to capitalize on the success of the iPad.InfoWorld has suggested that some Android manufacturers initially treated their first tablets as a "Frankenphone business", a short-term low-investment opportunity by placing a smartphone-optimized Android OS (before Android 3.0 Honeycomb for tablets was available) on a device while neglecting user interface. This approach, such as with the Dell Streak, failed to gain market traction with consumers as well as damaging the early reputation of Android tablets.Furthermore, several Android tablets such as the Motorola Xoom were priced the same or higher than the iPad, which hurt sales. An exception was the Amazon Kindle Fire, which relied upon lower pricing as well as access to Amazon's ecosystem of applications and content.

This began to change in 2012 with the release of the affordable Nexus 7 and a push by Google for developers to write better tablet applications.According to International Data Corporation, shipments of Android-powered tablets surpassed iPads in Q3 2012.

As of the end of 2013, over 191.6 million Android tablets had sold in three years since 2011.This made Android tablets the most-sold type of tablet in 2013, surpassing iPads in the second quarter of 2013.

As of March 2015, according to StatCounter and by accounting Android tablets accessing the web—?a proxy for their installed base—?they are catching up to the iPad in big countries and continents such as South America, having done so already in Russia (51%),India (63.25%),Indonesia (62.22%),and the whole Africa (53%).China is a major exception for big developing countries, in which Android phablets (classified as smartphones, while similar in size to tablets) are however much more popular than Android tablets or iPads.

Desktops and laptops

Android comes preinstalled on some laptops and can also be installed on most personal computers by end users. One reviewer commented:


You can even Alt-Tab between running applications, something you don’t really notice until you use Android on a laptop or desktop.

The notification center is vastly more complete and robust than in most environments. Just about every type of notification comes through this one user interface, functionality that other desktops only dream of.

If one can get over the whole “every app runs full screen” shebang, Android actually makes for an astoundingly usable, easy to learn, fairly peppy and relatively good-looking desktop environment.

Would I enjoy the Android user experience as my primary Linux Desktop experience? Yes. Absolutely. In fact, for long periods of time, Android has been my primary computing platform. And the environment is absolutely usable for that purpose.


—Bryan Lunduke, Network World
Bryan also notes that "Photoshop for Android tablets runs remarkably well on an Android laptop."

Platform usage

Circle frame.svg
  Lollipop (5.4%)
  KitKat (41.4%)
  Jelly Bean (40.7%)
  Ice Cream Sandwich (5.7%)
  Gingerbread (6.4%)
  Froyo (0.4%)
Charts in this section provide breakdowns of Android versions, based on the devices accessing the Play Store in a seven-day period ending on April 6, 2015.Therefore, these statistics exclude Android forks that do not access Google Play, such as Amazon's Fire tablets.

Version         Code name    Release date                         API level              Distribution
5.1.x          Lollipop            March 9, 2015                   22                               0.4%
5.0.0–5.0.2                            November 3, 2014                21                             5.0%
4.4.0–4.4.4   KitKat                October 31, 2013            19                               41.4%
4.3.x           Jelly Bean            July 24, 2013          18                               5.6%
4.2.x                                    November 13, 2012           17                              18.6%
4.1.x                                     July 9, 2012 16                                                      16.5%
4.0.3–4.0.4   Ice Cream Sandwich December 16,             2011 15                 5.7%
2.3.3–2.3.7   Gingerbread     February 9, 2011 9                                                6.4%
2.2  Froyo                             May 20, 2010                    8                                     0.4%

Application piracy

In general, paid Android applications can easily be pirated.In a May 2012 interview with Eurogamer, the developers of Football Manager stated that the ratio of pirated players vs legitimate players was 9:1 for their game Football Manager Handheld.However, not every developer agreed that piracy rates were an issue; for example, in July 2012 the developers of the game Wind-up Knight said that piracy levels of their game were only 12%, and most of the piracy came from China, where people cannot purchase apps from Google Play.

In 2010, Google released a tool for validating authorized purchases for use within apps, but developers complained that this was insufficient and trivial to crack. Google responded that the tool, especially its initial release, was intended as a sample framework for developers to modify and build upon depending on their needs, not as a finished piracy solution.In 2012 Google released a feature in Android 4.1 that encrypted paid applications so that they would only work on the device on which they were originally installed from the Google Play Store, but this feature has been temporarily deactivated due to technical issues.

Legal issues

Both Android and Android phone manufacturers have been involved in numerous patent lawsuits. On August 12, 2010, Oracle sued Google over claimed infringement of copyrights and patents related to the Java programming language.Oracle originally sought damages up to $6.1 billion,but this valuation was rejected by a United States federal judge who asked Oracle to revise the estimate.In response, Google submitted multiple lines of defense, counterclaiming that Android did not infringe on Oracle's patents or copyright, that Oracle's patents were invalid, and several other defenses. They said that Android is based on Apache Harmony, a clean room implementation of the Java class libraries, and an independently developed virtual machine called Dalvik.In May 2012, the jury in this case found that Google did not infringe on Oracle's patents, and the trial judge ruled that the structure of the Java APIs used by Google was not copyrightable.The parties agreed to zero dollars in statutory damages for a small amount of copied code.On May 9, 2014, the Federal Circuit partially reversed the district court ruling, ruling in Oracle's favor on the copyrightability issue, and remanding the issue of fair use to the district court.

In addition to lawsuits against Google directly, various proxy wars have been waged against Android indirectly by targeting manufacturers of Android devices, with the effect of discouraging manufacturers from adopting the platform by increasing the costs of bringing an Android device to market.Both Apple and Microsoft have sued several manufacturers for patent infringement, with Apple's ongoing legal action against Samsung being a particularly high-profile case. In October 2011, Microsoft said they had signed patent license agreements with ten Android device manufacturers, whose products account for "70% in the U.S.". and 55% of the worldwide revenue for Android devices.These include Samsung and HTC.Samsung's patent settlement with Microsoft includes an agreement that Samsung will allocate more resources to developing and marketing phones running Microsoft's Windows Phone operating system.

Google has publicly expressed its frustration for the current patent landscape in the United States, accusing Apple, Oracle and Microsoft of trying to take down Android through patent litigation, rather than innovating and competing with better products and services.In 2011–12, Google purchased Motorola Mobility for US$12.5 billion, which was viewed in part as a defensive measure to protect Android, since Motorola Mobility held more than 17,000 patents.In December 2011, Google bought over a thousand patents from IBM.

In 2013, FairSearch, a lobbying organization supported by Microsoft, Oracle and others, filed a complaint regarding Android with the European Commission, alleging that its free-of-charge distribution model constituted anti-competitive predatory pricing. The Free Software Foundation Europe, whose donors include Google, disputed the Fairsearch allegations.

Use outside of smartphones and tablets

Ouya, a video game console which runs Android, was one of the most successful crowdfunding campaigns on the website Kickstarter.
The open and customizable nature of Android allows it to be used on other electronics aside from smartphones and tablets, including laptops and netbooks, smartbooks,smart TVs (Android TV, Google TV) and cameras (E.g. Galaxy Camera).In addition, the Android operating system has seen applications on smart glasses (Google Glass), smartwatches,headphones,car CD and DVD players,mirrors,portable media players,landline and Voice over IP phones.Ouya, a video game console running Android, became one of the most successful Kickstarter campaigns, crowdfunding US$8.5m for its development,and was later followed by other Android-based consoles, such as Nvidia's Shield Portable – an Android device in a video game controller form factor.

In 2011, Google demonstrated "Android@Home", a home automation technology which uses Android to control a range of household devices including light switches, power sockets and thermostats.Prototype light bulbs were announced that could be controlled from an Android phone or tablet, but Android head Andy Rubin was cautious to note that "turning a lightbulb on and off is nothing new", pointing to numerous failed home automation services. Google, he said, was thinking more ambitiously and the intention was to use their position as a cloud services provider to bring Google products into customers' homes.

Parrot unveiled an Android-based car stereo system known as Asteroid in 2011,followed by a successor, the touchscreen-based Asteroid Smart, in 2012.In 2013, Clarion released its own Android-based car stereo, the AX1.In January 2014 at Consumer Electronics Show, Google announced the formation of the Open Automotive Alliance, a group including several major automobile makers (Audi, General Motors, Hyundai, and Honda) and Nvidia, which aims to produce Android-based in car entertainment systems for automobiles, the best of Android into the automobile in a safe and seamless way."

On March 18, 2014, Google announced Android Wear, an Android-based platform specifically intended for smartwatches and other wearable devices; only a developer preview was made publicly available.This was followed by the unveiling of two Android Wear–based devices, the LG G Watch and Moto 360.

On June 25, 2014, at Google I/O, it was announced that Android TV, a Smart TV platform, is replacing the previously released Google TV. On June 26, 2014, Google announced Android Auto for the car.

MATHS PROBAB

Probability is the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1 (where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty).The higher the probability of an event, the more certain we are that the event will occur. A simple example is the toss of a fair coin. Since the two outcomes are equally probable, the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails", so the probability is 1/2 (or 50%) chance of either "heads" or "tails".

These concepts have been given an axiomatic mathematical formalization in probability theory (see probability axioms), which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics), artificial intelligence/machine learning, computer science, and philosophy to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems.

Contents  

1 Interpretations
2 Etymology
3 History
4 Theory
5 Applications
6 Mathematical treatment
6.1 Independent events
6.2 Mutually exclusive events
6.3 Not mutually exclusive events
6.4 Conditional probability
6.5 Inverse probability
6.6 Summary of probabilities
7 Relation to randomness
8 See also
9 Notes
10 Bibliography

Interpretations

Main article: Probability interpretations
When dealing with experiments that are random and well-defined in a purely theoretical setting (like tossing a fair coin), probabilities can be numerically described by the statistical number of outcomes considered favorable divided by the total number of all outcomes (tossing a fair coin twice will yield head-head with probability 1/4, because the four outcomes head-head, head-tails, tails-head and tails-tails are equally likely to occur). When it comes to practical application however there are two major competing categories of probability interpretations, whose adherents possess different views about the fundamental nature of probability:

Objectivists assign numbers to describe some objective or physical state of affairs. The most popular version of objective probability is frequentist probability, which claims that the probability of a random event denotes the relative frequency of occurrence of an experiment's outcome, when repeating the experiment. This interpretation considers probability to be the relative frequency "in the long run" of outcomes.A modification of this is propensity probability, which interprets probability as the tendency of some experiment to yield a certain outcome, even if it is performed only once.
Subjectivists assign numbers per subjective probability, i.e., as a degree of belief.The degree of belief has been interpreted as, "the price at which you would buy or sell a bet that pays 1 unit of utility if E, 0 if not E." The most popular version of subjective probability is Bayesian probability, which includes expert knowledge as well as experimental data to produce probabilities. The expert knowledge is represented by some (subjective) prior probability distribution. The data is incorporated in a likelihood function. The product of the prior and the likelihood, normalized, results in a posterior probability distribution that incorporates all the information known to date.Starting from arbitrary, subjective probabilities for a group of agents, some Bayesians claim that all agents will eventually have sufficiently similar assessments of probabilities, given enough evidence (see Cromwell's rule).

Etymology

The word probability derives from the Latin probabilitas, which can also mean "probity", a measure of the authority of a witness in a legal case in Europe, and often correlated with the witness's nobility. In a sense, this differs much from the modern meaning of probability, which, in contrast, is a measure of the weight of empirical evidence, and is arrived at from inductive reasoning and statistical inference.

History

Main article: History of probability
The scientific study of probability is a modern development. Gambling shows that there has been an interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions arose much later. There are reasons of course, for the slow development of the mathematics of probability. Whereas games of chance provided the impetus for the mathematical study of probability, fundamental issues are still obscured by the superstitions of gamblers.


Christiaan Huygens probably published the first book on probability
According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the seventeenth century, the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that sense, univocally, to opinion and to action. A probable action or opinion was one such as sensible people would undertake or hold, in the circumstances."However, in legal contexts especially, 'probable' could also apply to propositions for which there was good evidence.

The sixteenth century polymath Gerolamo Cardano demonstrated the efficacy of defining odds as the ratio of favourable to unfavourable outcomes (which implies that the probability of an event is given by the ratio of favourable outcomes to the total number of possible outcomes). Aside from the elementary work by Cardano, the doctrine of probabilities dates to the correspondence of Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal (1654). Christiaan Huygens (1657) gave the earliest known scientific treatment of the subject.Jakob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de Moivre's Doctrine of Chances (1718) treated the subject as a branch of mathematics.See Ian Hacking's The Emergence of Probability and James Franklin's The Science of Conjecture for histories of the early development of the very concept of mathematical probability.

The theory of errors may be traced back to Roger Cotes's Opera Miscellanea (posthumous, 1722), but a memoir prepared by Thomas Simpson in 1755 (printed 1756) first applied the theory to the discussion of errors of observation. The reprint (1757) of this memoir lays down the axioms that positive and negative errors are equally probable, and that certain assignable limits define the range of all errors. Simpson also discusses continuous errors and describes a probability curve.

The first two laws of error that were proposed both originated with Pierre-Simon Laplace. The first law was published in 1774 and stated that the frequency of an error could be expressed as an exponential function of the numerical magnitude of the error, disregarding sign. The second law of error was proposed in 1778 by Laplace and stated that the frequency of the error is an exponential function of the square of the error.The second law of error is called the normal distribution or the Gauss law. "It is difficult historically to attribute that law to Gauss, who in spite of his well-known precocity had probably not made this discovery before he was two years old."

Daniel Bernoulli (1778) introduced the principle of the maximum product of the probabilities of a system of concurrent errors.


Carl Friedrich Gauss

Adrien-Marie Legendre (1805) developed the method of least squares, and introduced it in his Nouvelles méthodes pour la détermination des orbites des comètes (New Methods for Determining the Orbits of Comets). In ignorance of Legendre's contribution, an Irish-American writer, Robert Adrain, editor of "The Analyst" (1808), first deduced the law of facility of error,

\phi(x) = ce^{-h^2 x^2},
where h is a constant depending on precision of observation, and c is a scale factor ensuring that the area under the curve equals 1. He gave two proofs, the second being essentially the same as John Herschel's (1850). Gauss gave the first proof that seems to have been known in Europe (the third after Adrain's) in 1809. Further proofs were given by Laplace (1810, 1812), Gauss (1823), James Ivory (1825, 1826), Hagen (1837), Friedrich Bessel (1838), W. F. Donkin (1844, 1856), and Morgan Crofton (1870). Other contributors were Ellis (1844), De Morgan (1864), Glaisher (1872), and Giovanni Schiaparelli (1875). Peters's (1856) formula for r, the probable error of a single observation, is well known.

In the nineteenth century authors on the general theory included Laplace, Sylvestre Lacroix (1816), Littrow (1833), Adolphe Quetelet (1853), Richard Dedekind (1860), Helmert (1872), Hermann Laurent (1873), Liagre, Didion, and Karl Pearson. Augustus De Morgan and George Boole improved the exposition of the theory.

Andrey Markov introduced the notion of Markov chains (1906), which played an important role in stochastic processes theory and its applications. The modern theory of probability based on the measure theory was developed by Andrey Kolmogorov (1931).

On the geometric side (see integral geometry) contributors to The Educational Times were influential (Miller, Crofton, McColl, Wolstenholme, Watson, and Artemas Martin).


Theory


Like other theories, the theory of probability is a representation of probabilistic concepts in formal terms—that is, in terms that can be considered separately from their meaning. These formal terms are manipulated by the rules of mathematics and logic, and any results are interpreted or translated back into the problem domain.

There have been at least two successful attempts to formalize probability, namely the Kolmogorov formulation and the Cox formulation. In Kolmogorov's formulation (see probability space), sets are interpreted as events and probability itself as a measure on a class of sets. In Cox's theorem, probability is taken as a primitive (that is, not further analyzed) and the emphasis is on constructing a consistent assignment of probability values to propositions. In both cases, the laws of probability are the same, except for technical details.

There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the Dempster–Shafer theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not compatible with the laws of probability as usually understood.

Applications

Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade on financial markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, where it is called pathway analysis. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on oil prices—which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict.

The discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability assessments has changed society. It is important for most citizens to understand how probability assessments are made, and how they contribute to decisions.

Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use reliability theory in product design to reduce the probability of failure. Failure probability may influence a manufacturer's decisions on a product's warranty.

The cache language model and other statistical language models that are used in natural language processing are also examples of applications of probability theory.

Mathematical treatment

Consider an experiment that can produce a number of results. The collection of all results is called the sample space of the experiment. The power set of the sample space is formed by considering all different collections of possible results. For example, rolling a die can produce six possible results. One collection of possible results gives an odd number on the dice. Thus, the subset {1,3,5} is an element of the power set of the sample space of dice rolls. These collections are called "events." In this case, {1,3,5} is the event that the dice falls on some odd number. If the results that actually occur fall in a given event, the event is said to have occurred.

A probability is a way of assigning every event a value between zero and one, with the requirement that the event made up of all possible results (in our example, the event {1,2,3,4,5,6}) is assigned a value of one. To qualify as a probability, the assignment of values must satisfy the requirement that if you look at a collection of mutually exclusive events (events with no common results, e.g., the events {1,6}, {3}, and {2,4} are all mutually exclusive), the probability that at least one of the events will occur is given by the sum of the probabilities of all the individual events.

The probability of an event A is written as P(A), p(A) or Pr(A).This mathematical definition of probability can extend to infinite sample spaces, and even uncountable sample spaces, using the concept of a measure.

The opposite or complement of an event A is the event  (that is, the event of A not occurring); its probability is given by P(not A) = 1 - P(A).As an example, the chance of not rolling a six on a six-sided die is 1 – (chance of rolling a six) = 1 - \tfrac{1}{6} = \tfrac{5}{6}. See Complementary event for a more complete treatment.

If two events A and B occur on a single performance of an experiment, this is called the intersection or joint probability of A and B, denoted as P(A \cap B).

Independent events

If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is

P(A \mbox{ and }B) =  P(A \cap B) = P(A) P(B),\,
for example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is \tfrac{1}{2}\times\tfrac{1}{2} = \tfrac{1}{4}.

Mutually exclusive events

If either event A or event B or both events occur on a single performance of an experiment this is called the union of the events A and B denoted as P(A \cup B). If two events are mutually exclusive then the probability of either occurring is

P(A\mbox{ or }B) =  P(A \cup B)= P(A) + P(B).
For example, the chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is P(1\mbox{ or }2) = P(1) + P(2) = \tfrac{1}{6} + \tfrac{1}{6} = \tfrac{1}{3}.

Not mutually exclusive events

If the events are not mutually exclusive then

P\left(A \hbox{ or } B\right)=P\left(A\right)+P\left(B\right)-P\left(A \mbox{ and } B\right).
For example, when drawing a single card at random from a regular deck of cards, the chance of getting a heart or a face card (J,Q,K) (or one that is both) is \tfrac{13}{52} + \tfrac{12}{52} - \tfrac{3}{52} = \tfrac{11}{26}, because of the 52 cards of a deck 13 are hearts, 12 are face cards, and 3 are both: here the possibilities included in the "3 that are both" are included in each of the "13 hearts" and the "12 face cards" but should only be counted once.

Conditional probability

Conditional probability is the probability of some event A, given the occurrence of some other event B. Conditional probability is written P(A \mid B), and is read "the probability of A, given B". It is defined by

P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}.\,
If P(B)=0 then P(A \mid B) is formally undefined by this expression. However, it is possible to define a conditional probability for some zero-probability events using a s-algebra of such events (such as those arising from a continuous random variable).

For example, in a bag of 2 red balls and 2 blue balls (4 balls in total), the probability of taking a red ball is 1/2; however, when taking a second ball, the probability of it being either a red ball or a blue ball depends on the ball previously taken, such as, if a red ball was taken, the probability of picking a red ball again would be 1/3 since only 1 red and 2 blue balls would have been remaining.

Inverse probability

In probability theory and applications, Bayes' rule relates the odds of event A_1 to event A_2, before (prior to) and after (posterior to) conditioning on another event B. The odds on A_1 to event A_2 is simply the ratio of the probabilities of the two events. When arbitrarily many events A are of interest, not just two, the rule can be rephrased as posterior is proportional to prior times likelihood, P(A|B)\propto P(A) P(B|A) where the proportionality symbol means that the left hand side is proportional to (i.e., equals a constant times) the right hand side as A varies, for fixed or given B (Lee, 2012; Bertsch McGrayne, 2012). In this form it goes back to Laplace (1774) and to Cournot (1843); see Fienberg (2005). See Inverse probability and Bayes' rule.

Summary of probabilities

In a deterministic universe, based on Newtonian concepts, there would be no probability if all conditions were known (Laplace's demon), (but there are situations in which sensitivity to initial conditions exceeds our ability to measure them, i.e. know them). In the case of a roulette wheel, if the force of the hand and the period of that force are known, the number on which the ball will stop would be a certainty (though as a practical matter, this would likely be true only of a roulette wheel that had not been exactly levelled — as Thomas A. Bass' Newtonian Casino revealed). Of course, this also assumes knowledge of inertia and friction of the wheel, weight, smoothness and roundness of the ball, variations in hand speed during the turning and so forth. A probabilistic description can thus be more useful than Newtonian mechanics for analyzing the pattern of outcomes of repeated rolls of a roulette wheel. Physicists face the same situation in kinetic theory of gases, where the system, while deterministic in principle, is so complex (with the number of molecules typically the order of magnitude of Avogadro constant 6.02·1023) that only a statistical description of its properties is feasible.

Probability theory is required to describe quantum phenomena.A revolutionary discovery of early 20th century physics was the random character of all physical processes that occur at sub-atomic scales and are governed by the laws of quantum mechanics. The objective wave function evolves deterministically but, according to the Copenhagen interpretation, it deals with probabilities of observing, the outcome being explained by a wave function collapse when an observation is made. However, the loss of determinism for the sake of instrumentalism did not meet with universal approval. Albert Einstein famously remarked in a letter to Max Born: "I am convinced that God does not play dice".Like Einstein, Erwin Schrödinger, who discovered the wave function, believed quantum mechanics is a statistical approximation of an underlying deterministic reality.In modern interpretations, quantum decoherence accounts for subjectively probabilistic behavior.